July 08, 2026 — With a framework for a comprehensive agreement now in place, large companies in the Middle East are optimistic that local economies and businesses can get back to their previous strong growth trajectories.
Despite the projected slowdown, on-the-ground observations across the United Arab Emirates and other regional hubs continue to highlight the resilience of economic activity, a fact echoed by data from the Crisil Coalition Greenwich annual MENA Corporate Banking Study.
“We believe the business outlook for both companies operating in the Middle East and banks competing in the region will turn positive quickly as the situation normalizes, and as strong economic fundamentals kick back in, boosted by capex spending,” says Ruchirangad Agarwal, Director and Head of Corporate Banking (Asia & MENA) at Crisil Coalition Greenwich and coauthor of Companies in the Middle East prepare for a growth rebound.
What would a quick return to pre-war growth levels look like for companies in the region?
Every year, Crisil Coalition Greenwich asks large corporates across the MENA region about their expectations for the year ahead. MENA corporates entered 2026 with a highly positive outlook.
“After spending several years aggressively expanding their businesses, MENA companies entered 2026 planning to bolster their balance sheets and focus on operational and cost efficiencies to ensure they have a solid foundation for the next stage of growth,” says coauthor and Crisil Coalition Greenwich Senior Consultant Amin Shaukat. “Although they will have to recalibrate, companies hope to quickly resume those plans in an environment of recovery.”
Demand for Banking Services Points to Strong Economic Activity
Demand for corporate banking services is a reliable indicator for business activity within a region and across international business corridors. At the start of 2026, corporates in the Middle East were taking on new bank relationships in both cash management and trade finance. Companies needed more support as they expanded their businesses, both domestically and internationally.
Banks in the Middle East and their global competitors were also experiencing growing demand from companies in Asia for banking services into MENA. Since 2021, the share of Asian corporates employing a bank for outbound service into MENA increased from less than 1 in 5 to roughly a quarter.
“The increase in Asia-to-MENA banking activity points to a surge in trade that has contributed to MENA corporate growth and economic expansion,” says Pushpak Vanjari, Consultant at Crisil Coalition Greenwich and coauthor of the report. “We believe that trend will resume or possibly even accelerate, as companies in both the Middle East and Asia move to rectify dislocations in supply chains and energy caused by the conflict in Iran, as well as the ever-changing framework of U.S. tariffs.”