• The Greenwich Optimism Index improved from -12 to -3, signaling a meaningful improvement in business sentiment among small businesses and midsize companies
• While outlooks have become less negative, many companies remain cautious given ongoing inflation, geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and interest rate uncertainty
• Nearly half (48%) of respondents expect operating risk to increase over the next 12 months
• 91% of companies are prioritizing financial strength over product offering and even price when choosing bank

September 1, 2026 — The economic outlook among U.S. small businesses and midsize companies has improved in recent months, according to a new Market Pulse analysis from Crisil Coalition Greenwich, although business leaders remain cautious about the future.

In July 2026, the Greenwich Optimism Index improved 9pts, representing the strongest reading since December 2024. While the Index remains negative, the improvement suggests that executives are becoming more confident that economic conditions are stabilizing following a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Several times each year, Crisil Coalition Greenwich surveys thousands of  mall and midsize businesses about the business environment and their relationships with commercial banks. Responses on economic outlook are aggregated into the Greenwich Optimism Index. A positive reading on the Index indicates that, on net, small businesses and midsize companies expect the economy to improve; a negative reading indicates net expectations for economic deterioration.

"The latest results point to a significant improvement in business sentiment, but not a return to broad-based optimism," says Chris McDonnell, Head of U.S. Commercial and Digital Banking at Crisil Coalition Greenwich. "Business leaders see signs of stabilization in the economy, but they remain mindful of the risks that could affect growth and operations over the coming year."

Following are some of the key findings in the new analysis:

• Companies rely on banks for stability, help navigating volatility: Although economic sentiment has improved, executives are acutely aware of the risks facing the economy in the second half of 2026. Nearly half (48%) of study respondents expect to see a slight to moderate rise in operating risk in the next 12 months. Inflation, fluctuating interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and trade disruptions continue to rank among companies' top concerns.
• Younger business leaders look to banks for guidance in challenging economy: Nearly half (44%) of small businesses and midsize companies say they will rely on their banks for guidance and support in dealing with these and other pressures. Younger executives, including millennials and GenX, are more than twice as likely as older executives to engage their banking partners for advice and support during volatile market conditions.
• Bank strength is key in periods of uncertainty: Banks can only help companies navigate uncertainty if they themselves are financially strong enough to weather crises. Accordingly, 91% of business owners and executives say they review banks’ financial strength/stability when choosing a provider, and that perceived resilience now outweighs product breadth and even price when companies are selecting banks.

"Periods of uncertainty create both challenges and opportunities," says Kevin Seiler, Senior Relationship Manager for Commercial and Community Banking at Crisil Coalition Greenwich. "Clients increasingly value banking partners who can provide strategic guidance, access to capital, and stability as they make decisions in a rapidly changing environment."

Insights from the study data suggest that, for banks, winning the confidence of small business and midsize companies in the future will require a combination of financial strength, trusted advisory capabilities, superior digital experiences, flexible capital solutions, and high-value relationship management.

"As economic conditions evolve, businesses are looking for banking partners that can help them manage risk while identifying opportunities for growth," says McDonnell. "Banks that can deliver both confidence and guidance will be best positioned to succeed in the years ahead."