August 12, 2025 — Following the announcement of a sweeping set of tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, many economists predicted that the policies would lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth in the United States. To date, opinions remain mixed regarding the overall economic outlook and the long-term impact of these measures. Nevertheless, many commercial business owners and executives continue to express practical concerns about the potential consequences.
Roughly half of the small businesses and mid-sized companies taking part in the Q2 2025 Greenwich Market Pulse study reported ongoing concerns about the impact of tariffs on the market environment and their businesses operations. Among this group, 30% of small businesses and 36% of middle-market companies stated they are extremely concerned about the potential long-term negative effects of these policies.
“The U.S. economy is still in the very early stages when it comes to tariffs, and U.S. businesses do not in any way think we are in the clear,” says Chris McDonnell, Head of Commercial and Digital Banking Analytics at Crisil Coalition Greenwich. “After a period of adjustments and negotiations through the first half of the year, companies are still waiting to see how these newly implemented policies impact prices, spending and profits.”
On Tariffs, Commercial Banks are Missing an Important Opportunity
One area that could provide reassurance to business owners and executives is receiving informed and ongoing guidance from their bankers and relationship managers. However, to date, only one in five research participants report having had a conversation with their bank about how these policy changes could impact their business. This gap highlights a crucial opportunity for banks to take a more proactive role in supporting their clients – offering tailored advice and strategies to help them navigate an increasingly uncertain economic environment.
“Banks are missing a real opportunity to build stronger relationships with commercial banking clients,” says Chris McDonnell. “Business owners and executives report significantly higher satisfaction with their banks when a dedicated relationship manager proactively initiates contact to provide guidance and support on essential issues like tariffs.”